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Last Updated On: August 14th, 2024
It’s common knowledge that a player’s rookie card (with some exceptions) is their most valuable. It’s one-of-a-kind and represents a gamble by the collector that said player will go on to have a promising career.
We also know that players tend to have multiple rookie cards. With many different card products, brands, and even parallels, collectors typically gravitate towards one card as being the most important (and usually valuable) rookie card.
But what about the other cards? The ones that are still rookies but not generally considered a player’s most valuable rookie card? Is there reason to believe these lower-pop alternatives might hold an edge in long term value?
This post will discuss three traditionally highly collective rookie cards with high pop counts, and compare them with lower-pop counterparts that may be better alternatives:
- ’86 Jordan Fleer
- ’89 Griffey Jr. Upper Deck
- ’03 LeBron James Topps Chrome
Based on our findings, we’ll provide a population and price comparison along with a final recommendation for which cards could be the better play. By the end, you should able to replicate this relatively straightforward process with other notable rookie cards, too.
Let’s crunch the numbers!
Table of Contents
Overview
Right off, we must properly define a “high pop” card. Pop count refers to the number of cards that have received a grade (i.e., the “population count”). Tying any specific number or numerical range to this definition is impossible. Rather, whether a card has a high pop count is relative to other cards belonging to the same player.
For instance, Ken Griffey Jr.’s Upper Deck rookie card, printed at the height of the Junk Wax Era, has a pop count north of 167,000. Michael Jordan’s 1986 Fleer rookie card, on the other hand, has a pop count of “only” 45,000.
If we cross-compare, we may not consider the Jordan card to have a high pop count vis-a-vis Griffey. But this sort of comparison is both misleading and misses the point entirely. As we discussed in our Eye Appeals post, it’s crucial only to compare similar cards, such as cards belonging to the same player.
Additionally, we must consider the other factors that determine a card’s value. These include player popularity, overall collectibility, and robustness of the fan base. If a player isn’t popular or their card is not collectible, their pop count probably doesn’t matter in the same way as the players on this list.
Our goal here is to identify a comparable rookie card for the same player that has more potential upside. Even if you’re not a buyer or current owner of these cards, it’s a good exercise when considering other cards with gigantic price or pop differences. Dislocations in price could tell us something, or the market is very wrong and could correct in price (opportunity?).
Michael Jordan 1986 Fleer vs. 1984 Star
In the Mount Rushmore of sports card recognizability, Michael Jordan’s 1986 Fleer rookie card is probably in the same conversation as the famed Honus Wagner T206 and the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. This was especially true during the early 2020s boom, spurred on by “The Last Dance” documentary that revitalized interest in Jordan memorabilia.
Curiously, as NBA fans can attest, ‘86 was not Jordan’s rookie season. By then, he was a two-year vet, having been drafted by the Chicago Bulls in 1984.
However, the basketball card landscape looked quite a bit different in 1984. To begin with, Star owned the license to produce NBA cards. Unfortunately, Star lacked the prowess of its longer-existing and better-organized rivals. Plagued by low distribution, the 1984 Star set failed to catch on, despite including first-look rookie cards of Jordan, Charles Barkley, Akeem Olajuwon, and John Stockton.
Two years later, everything changed. Fleer owned the license and added professionalism to the basketball card market. At the same time, Jordan’s popularity began to soar, by then a Rookie of the Year winner, All-Star, and just two years away from his first MVP award. It was a perfect storm, as Fleer printed thousands of its basketball product in 1986.
Population Comparison
There’s no comparison in population between the two cards. A total of 45,000 Jordan Fleers have been graded by large graders including PSA (27,000), BGS (14,200), SGC, and CGC. Compare that to just over 1,500 of the 1984 Star rookie card.
Put another way, there are 30 Jordan Fleer rookie cards for every one Star card (a 30:1 ratio). By simple supply and demand calculations, we’d venture to guess the Star card should strongly outperform the Fleer over the long haul.
When you compare market caps (short for “market capitalization”) — a way to measure a company or product’s value based on supply and price — the Fleer takes the cake. A PSA Gem Mint Fleer rookie’s market cap stands at around $64 million (which we get by multiplying its Card Ladder value of $193,000 by 331, the number of total PSA 10s). The market cap of a PSA 9 Fleer is $55.7 million, while a PSA 8 sits at $59.4 million. That’s a combined market cap of $179.1 million for only those three grades.
Star exists on the other end of the spectrum, partly thanks to its low population. The entire market cap for BGS-graded Star cards (which is the majority given PSA just recently started grading Star) is only worth around $42 million.
Price Comparison
Okay, enough with the Econ 101 jargon. Let’s get down to brass tacks: price comparisons. Here’s a run-down of a few recent sales of the Jordan Fleer rookie card:
| Date | Grade | Price |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | PSA 7 | $4,700 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | PSA 7 | $4,901 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | PSA 9 | $17,200 |
| Aug. 8, 2024 | BGS 8.5 | $7,025 |
| Aug. 7, 2024 | PSA 8 | $6,999 |
By comparison, here are recent sales of the Star rookie card:
| Date | Grade | Price |
| Aug. 11, 2024 | BGS 8.5 | $52,800 |
| Aug. 2, 2024 | PSA 6 | $25,000 |
| Aug. 1, 2024 | PSA 1 | $12,500 |
| Jul. 26, 2024 | PSA 3 | $12,000 |
The Star wins by a landslide. There’s no comparison; the BGS Star card sold for over six times as much as an identically graded Fleer. This is a strong indication that pop count (i.e., scarcity) could be boosting those Star card values.
Verdict
Fleer is clearly the more identifiable product with a significantly higher market cap. But Star takes the cake insofar as scarcity is concerned.
Here’s the real X-factor: PSA restarted grading Star NBA cards after ceasing in the early 1990s. It’s a sign that collectors and investors may shift their attention over to Jordan Star cards. Recent sales figures for the Star cards are starting to point this out: since January, values of the BGS 8.5 Star card, for example, have risen considerably (by almost 75%!).
Ultimately, we think the play is to forego Fleer for Star cards in any grade. That’s not to say the Fleer is not to be cherished or needs to be sold. However, if we were in the market to buy or trade for a Jordan rookie, Star is the way to go. With PSA lending credence to Star cards by restarting grading and authentication, and collectors beginning to pay respectable prices for the low-pop card, sky is the limit.
Indeed, it boils down to a simple question: Would you rather own one of only 1,600 graded copies worldwide or a PSA 8 Fleer, which has a population six times as large by itself?
Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Upper Deck vs. 1989 Topps Traded Tiffany
We’re sticking with the ‘80s for our next pair of star-studded comparisons, this time with baseball legend Ken Griffey, Jr. Much like the Jordan Fleer, Griffey’s Upper Deck card is one of the most recognizable cards of its generation. With his megawatt smile, gold chain, and throwback Mariners cap, this card harkens back to a time when baseball was the most popular sport in the country.
Unfortunately, Upper Deck knew baseball was popular. It knew so well that it churned out hundreds of thousands of cards to satiate the demand of collectors. While most cards lost value like a new car fresh off the lot, Griffey’s charm and talent buoyed his card’s value.
But Upper Deck wasn’t the only company to print a Griffey rookie. At the same time, Topps reeled off its Tiffany set, a higher-end alternative to its Topps Traded base set, often associated with the uber-collectible Barry Bonds rookie card.
Adding to the allure was the fact that Tiffany cards could only be purchased in a complete set. Ditto for the higher quality cardstock and glossy finish; Tiffany cards were intended to break the mold of the often crummy and aesthetically disappointing alternatives, and they did just that.
Population Comparison
Because Tiffany was intended as a higher-tier option, it’s unsurprising that we see significantly reduced pop count compared to Upper Deck. Per Card Ladder, 3,105 Tiffany cards have been graded, with 454 coming in as Gem Mints. Compare that to the 168,834 Upper Deck cards that have been graded (7,554 alone earning Gem Mint grades).
Think about that staggering difference for a moment. Not only are there over 54 Upper Deck cards for every Tiffany but there are over two Gem Mint Upper Decks for every single Tiffany in any grade.
Additionally, the market cap for Upper Deck PSA 10s sits at $8.77 million and $5.5 million for PSA 9s. Tiffany’s PSA 10 market cap, meanwhile is a paltry $1.3 million.
Price Comparison
Let’s see if the low pop/high pop contrast translates in recent sale prices. Here’s a rundown of recent sales for the Griffey Upper Deck:
| Date | Grade | Price |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | PSA 9 | $195.99 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | PSA 9 | $180 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | PSA 9 | $199 |
| Aug. 3, 2024 | PSA 10 | $2,019 |
And the Griffey Tiffany:
| Date | Grade | Price |
| Aug. 8, 2024 | PSA 9 | $335 |
| Aug. 4, 2024 | BGS 9.5 | $900 |
| Aug. 2, 2024 | PSA 9 | $330 |
| Jul. 18, 2024 | PSA 10 | $3,760 |
Immediately, we can see that outside of PSA 10s, there’s not much value to be had in Upper Deck Griffey cards. This is a product of the card’s overproduction; when many thousands of cards are available, only the top-end ones truly differentiate themselves.
We also see some value emerging in the Tiffany class. Those PSA 9s consistently sell for $100-$150 more than their Upper Deck equivalents (almost 75% more). Even so, considering there is a ratio of 21 times more PSA 9 Upper Deck Griffeys compared with Tiffanys, the additional $150 for a Tiffany rookie in Mint condition is representative of a woefully undervalued card by comparison.
| PSA 9 Griffey | 1989 Upper Deck | 1989 Topps Traded Tiffany |
| Pop Count | 31,971 | 1,507 |
| Avg. Selling Price | $192 | $333 |
Verdict
Just as with the Star Jordan in our first example, the Tiffany Griffey is the best bang for the buck for a key rookie card. Tiffany cards truly stand out in an era of rampant overproduction. These are limited pieces, meaning they’ve been able to withstand the withering scrutiny cast upon most Junk Wax Era cards. While there’s always a danger of a card’s pop count increasing over time, Tiffany’s steadiness makes for a perfect antidote.
As it stands, there’s a softness in the non-Gem Mint Upper Deck market, making it perfect for Tiffany to step in. Tiffany cards are fairly affordable and represent an excellent investment for less than 2x the price of an Upper Deck Griffey, boasted by a tiny fraction in population count by comparison.
LeBron James 2003 Topps Chrome vs. 2003 Bowman Chrome
Enough with the pre-modern cards; it’s time to bring things into the 21st century. And what better player to check out than LeBron James?
The King made his NBA debut in 2003 after being drafted first overall by his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers. Shortly after, Topps, who owned the NBA license at the time (Panini’s takeover was still several years away), reeled off an iconic card of its own: the 2003 Topps Chrome #111.
With its trademark metallic theme, the Topps Chrome LeBron James card is one of the most collectible NBA cards of this century. But it’s not the only James rookie card that hit shelves that season.
Bowman (technically a subsidiary of Topps) came out with its own James rookie card, the Bowman Chrome Rookies and Stars #123. A simple card, it takes on some of the same chrome-fueled goodness of Topps. The blue accenting may not gel quite as well with the maroon Cavaliers jersey as the Topps Chrome, but there’s something special about James’ youthful energy, especially now that he’s at the end of his career.
Population Comparison
By the metrics used for the other two “high pop” cards, the James Topps Chrome card lags in pop count (18,884 total, 5,982 Gem Mint). But recall that we aren’t comparing cards across different players; we’re comparing cards of the same player.
But James’ Bowman Chrome card’s pop count is 6,733 and 1,803 Gem Mints. It’s a slightly elevated Gem rate than we may like to see, likely because collectors knew James was headed for a Hall of Fame career and took better care of those cards.
If we break it down by market cap, the James Bowman Chrome is around $1.8 million for PSA 10s and 9s, while the Topps Chrome PSA 10 market cap alone is $10.15 million.
Price Comparison
Step two: compare the recent sales. Here’s a list of recent sales of the Topps Chrome James card:
| Date | Grade | Price |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | PSA 10 | $4,275 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | SGC 9 | $999 |
| Aug. 8, 2024 | PSA 9 | $1,301 |
| Aug. 8, 2024 | PSA 9 | $1,295 |
Here’s a similar chart of recent sales for the Bowman Chrome James card:
| Date | Grade | Price |
| Aug. 13, 2024 | PSA 8 | $282 |
| Aug. 12, 2024 | PSA 9 | $455 |
| Aug. 10, 2024 | PSA 9 | $545 |
| Aug. 4, 2024 | PSA 10 | $2,225 |
Even more so than the Griffeys, there’s a soft underbelly here for Bowman Chrome LeBron James rookie cards. The PSA 9s are eminently affordable compared with the Topps Chrome equivalent. When considering there are almost three times more Topps Chrome cards in PSA 9, paying less than 40% in price sounds like a deal.
| PSA 9 LeBron | 2003 Topps Chrome | 2003 Bowman Chrome |
| Pop Count | 4,242 | 1,533 |
Verdict
If there was a bright red “BUY” button, we’d smash it down for the Bowman Chrome. For starters, the Bowman Chrome LeBron James card is an excellent stand-in if the Topps Chrome is out of one’s price range.
Then there’s the fact that the Bowman Chrome pop count is considerably lower than that of the Topps Chrome. While the pop ratio isn’t quite as steep as the Star Jordan, or Tiffany Griffey example, it’s still substantial. It may be that the market never catches up to this fact, but if it does, we could see a severe leveling out of prices, with the Bowman Chrome rising and Topps Chrome falling.
That’s not a guarantee, however. Keep in mind that Bowman is more of a baseball brand; it’s why we feel even better about the Tiffany Griffey holding its own over time against the Upper Deck. Both brands are baseball brands, so all things being equal, we might feel a bit more confident about the Tiffany rising.
Topps Chrome, on the other hand, was the basketball brand of the early 2000s, while Bowman remained primarily a baseball rookie-centric brand. The card has to get dinged for that fact simply because many collectors in the hobby are picky and, all else being equal, will gravitate toward the brand more recognizable for a given sport.
Summary
Should you dump your Fleer Jordan, Griffey Upper Deck, or James Topps Chrome? Probably not. There are plenty of non-monetary reasons to hang onto those cards: they’re parts of history, belong to some of the all-time greats in their respective sports, and remain collectible independent of pricing.
Rather, this post highlights some of the reasons why collectors may want to explore alternative rookie cards for these same players. No, the floor likely isn’t going to give out on these cards, however, there very well could be more value found elsewhere.
Additionally, this process is easily replicable across any other high pop/low pop card contrast. If you end up running the same analysis for other cards and spot any steals, let us know in the comments below!