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Last Updated On: November 25th, 2023
The collectibles world was rocked in January 2009. The Italian company Panini, well-known in Europe for producing wildly successful World Cup stickers every four years, had come out of nowhere to secure an exclusive deal with the NBA to make cards.
Since the early 1990s, two well-known, albeit primarily baseball-oriented companies, Topps and Upper Deck, owned the basketball card corner. And they did well, producing a handful of iconic sets, including the 2008-09 set featuring exciting rookies Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose.
Panini’s entrance into the market was panned by the experts.
“It might have been another step towards putting the card industry into the grave,” wrote Darren Rovell. “I can’t wait to see what Panini does. It will, at the very least, shake things up. But to think that it will put the card industry in any better shape than it is now is a pipe dream,” Rovell pessimistically concluded.
Flash forward 14 years later, and it’s difficult to express just how wrong Rovell’s prophecy turned out. Not only did the hobby return hotter than prime Steph Curry on an NBA Jam torch-fest, but it did so largely on the back of basketball cards. While it might be a stretch to say that the Prizm saved card collecting, they undoubtedly injected much-needed creativity, energy, and excitement into a hobby that had already called the priest to read its last rites.
But what makes those Prizm cards so unique? That’s what we’re here to answer today. In this post, you’ll learn all about Prizm basketball cards, including the difference between silvers and bases, must-have sets, and parallels to look out for and those to avoid. We’ll also provide a few collecting and investing tips, as well.
Hopefully, you leave here with a clearer understanding of this game-changing card brand. Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
What are Prizm Basketball Cards?
Panini couldn’t have timed its entrance into the hobby much better. Little did Panini know it, but 2009 was something of a watershed moment for the league, with a fresh crop of young talent on the horizon.
But that bright future would be put on hold, at least temporarily: it would take three more years until the Panini Prizm product debuted. The delay resulted from a few different forces: Panini trotted out several non-descript sets as it worked out the kinks of basketball card production, and an NBA lockout derailed more than just the hobby in 2011.
But when it did enter the hobby with its debut set, Prizm demonstrated that it would take what worked well with the Topps Chrome sets (i.e., the chromium prints) and develop its own spin on basketball cards.
Panini’s debut set featured an abundance of league legends, including an “MVP” insert series that put Bill Russell and Bill Walton on cardboard. They knew how to tap into the hobby’s nostalgia, giving the people what they wanted (and more).
But at base (no pun intended), Prizm basketball cards are the flagship basketball cards produced by Panini. Of course, they don’t make it easy – the word “Prizm” appears in other Panini brand sets, including Optic and Select. But as far as the hobby is concerned, Prizm is about as collectible as they come.
As with other sets throughout history, Prizms come in various parallels. The most famous of those parallels is the Silver Prizm, which we’ll discuss next in a bit more depth.
Silver vs. Base: What’s the difference?
Here’s one of the biggest takeaways from this article: Silver Prizms are where it’s at. And it all goes back to the hobby’s absolute obsession with shiny cards. This isn’t new – when Topps Chrome debuted in 1996, they were the coolest thing since hologram cards.
Okay, pomp and circumstance aside, Silver Prizms are simply a parallel to a card’s base. Typically, a base card looks pretty plain. Some might even say boring. But the Silver Prizm takes that hog and adds just a touch of lipstick and concealer to produce a shinier, more reflective and refractor-like card.
Side Note: Prizm didn’t actually come out with a “Silver” parallel until its 2015-16 set. Collectors, by and large, consider the “Prizm” parallel in pre-2015 sets to be equivalent to the “Silver” parallels that came later. So when we mention the Silver Prizm, consider pre-2015 sets to be included in the conversation.
Here’s why the Silver Prizm matters: it’s arguably the most collectible card of the bunch given its flashy look and accessibility. Even though it’s not numbered (meaning the precise print count is unknown), we can review graded population counts to estimate the ratio of Base cards printed versus Silver Prizms. The ratio between Base and Silver Prizms is possibly between 3:1, and up to 7:1 (i.e. you are likely to see 3 to 7 more Base cards pulled for every Silver pulled from a pack).
As for pricing, it’s not uncommon for Silver Prizms to be valued five times as much as a base card in the same condition (unsurprising given the ratio estimated).
Take, for instance, up-and-coming superstar Anthony Edward’s rookie cards, which we cover in depth in other post. His PSA 10 base card is valued near $105 by CardLadder. Not bad for a base card, right? His Silver Prizm in the same condition comes in at almost 5x, around $550.
As the hobby was resuscitated during the mid-to-late 2010s, each successive Prizm release was met with rabid enthusiasm. Target stores stopped selling cards. Prices soared. All of this to say – virtually every NBA Prizm release has been “popular.” That said, there are a few hallmark years worth touching on.
Popular Sets and Years
Of the most notable Prizm basketball card releases, 2012 is clearly a winner as the debut year of the product. Collectors love to chase the first year of a product once it reaches the level of prestige and collectibility that Prizm has over the years.
And in the early years, Panini didn’t print nearly as many Prizm cards — and accompanying parallels — as they do today. In fact, 2012 through 2017 print runs were significantly lower than 2018 and on (stay tuned as we look at the progressive explosion of parallels and pop counts later). The added scarcity certainly helped anchor 2012, and 2013, in particular.
Debut of 2012 Panini Prizm
When Panini debuted its 2012 Prizm basketball set, it shrewdly didn’t stray too far from expectations as far as design. In fact, the 2012 set shares some similarities with another familiar series, the 2007 Topps Chrome set. Both eschewed over using a player’s team colors on the card, instead opting for a standard metallic border.
Panini also incorporated a tried-and-true feature into its debut set: legends and Hall of Famers. Among the base sets numbered between #151 and #200 are a bounty of all-timers, including Wilt Chamberlain, Magic Johnson, and Allen Iverson.
And while seemingly infinite parallels would come to define Prizm’s existence, only three came in the original set: Prizms (aka Silver), Green Prizms, and Gold Prizms numbered to only /10. The latter frequently appear in eBay auctions as the most popular cards followed by collectors.
Popular Superstars in 2012 set
It’s important to remember that 2012 was the debut of every NBA player on a Prizm card. And while Steph Curry’s first appearance on a Prizm card isn’t going to top his Topps Chrome rookie card, it’s still a debut worth celebrating. Here are just a few of the other popular superstars from this set (which also serves as a walk down memory lane!):
Kobe Bryant
Chris Paul
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
Key Rookies in 2012 set
It’s hard to imagine a better year to debut than 2012 for Panini. The NBA lockout shortened the season prior, leaving fans with far less basketball than they (collectively) bargained for. But more than that, the lockout forced card companies to delay a year in production, meaning 2011 rookies got rolled over into the 2012 class. As a result, there are 100(!) rookies in this set.
And what a crop of rookies they were. Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker, Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal, Damian Lillard, Nikola Vucevic, and Draymond Green rounded out an exceptional two-year class.
Hall of Famers Included
As mentioned, Panini included many of the game’s past stars in its 2012 set. The cards numbered #151 to #200 were reserved for legends of the game. This wasn’t an altogether new concept; Topps had incorporated stars of the game’s past into its sets. But 50 cards made it a pure nostalgia bomb.
In addition to the legends in base sets, Prizm offered a handful as inserts. That includes 38 as “Finalists” inserts, which celebrate notable NBA Finals champs, and 25 “MVP” inserts, championing those who were named the league’s Most Valuable Player. Each came with three parallels, including a Gold Prizm numbered to /10.
Autographs
Prizm also debuted several autograph cards with its 2012 set. The cards featured different player photos from the base cards in the set. Among the 100 names who put pen to cardboard (more like sticker) are hotshot rookies Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, and Kemba Walker. In addition, several former studs like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Steve Kerr appeared on autographed cards in 2012. Only one parallel existed for these autos, a numbered /25 Prizms (basically the Silver Prizm).
As time wore on, Panini introduced rookie-specific autographs known as “Rookie Signatures.” Generally, these cards aren’t too far apart in value from Silver Prizm, non-auto rookie cards.
Luka Doncic’s 2018 Rookie Signatures, for instance, is valued by CardLadder near $1,600 in Gem Mint condition, while his Silver Prizm comes in at $1,290. But there is more to the story.
| Luka Doncic 2018 Rookie Comparison | Value | Pop Count |
| Silver Prizm PSA 10 | $1,290 | 2,250 |
| Rookie Signatures PSA 10 | $1,600 | 254 |
| Rookie Signatures Silver Prizm PSA 10 | $4,760 | 37 |
Doncic’s Rookie Signatures card has a pop count of 254 PSA 10s, while the Silver Prizm non-auto has almost 10 times as many with over 2,250 in circulation. It appears the more popular card is the Silver Prizm non-auto as it maintains significant value with 10x more supply in the market. For comparison, Doncic’s Rookie Signatures Silver Prizm parallel in PSA 10 (not numbered like they were in 2012) jumps to a value of $4,760 on CardLadder. It has a minuscule pop count of 37 copies.
2013 Panini Prizm and How it Compares
It would always be difficult to match 2012’s buzz and excitement, especially considering the sheer number of rookies and exceptional talent. Unfortunately, the NBA didn’t make anything easier for Prizm.
As far as quantity of talent is concerned, the 2013 draft paled in comparison to its 2012 counterpart. Of the 14 lottery selections, only one All-Star materialized (Victor Oladipo). The rest of the first round wasn’t much better – of the 60 players selected in the two rounds, only three earned at least one All-Star nod (in fact, three times that amount – nine players – never stepped foot on an NBA court).
The Giannis Effect
But while the quantity certainly wasn’t there, the quality was more than apparent. That’s because, with the 15th overall pick, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Giannis Antetokounmpo. Aside from his multiple MVP awards, a Finals ring, etc., Antetokounmpo sent ripples in the hobby with his Prizm card.
That’s because, after going with just one autograph parallel and three non-autographed parallels in 2012, Prizm swelled that figure to 11 in the non-autographed set, including two 1/1s (Black Prizms and Black Prizms Mosaic). Among the auto cards from 2013, five parallels were produced, including a 1/1 Black Prizms.
And in 2020, that Black Prizms Mosaic card sold for over $1 million.
The 1/1 cards aren’t the only ones worth serious dough. His Silver Prizm (remember, this will still read “Prizm” on the grade label) in PSA 10 Gem Mint condition is valued at $8,000 and has a pop count of only 80. Other parallels, like his Orange numbered to /60, is valued near $20,000 and carries a Gem Mint pop count of just six. Heck, it hasn’t sold publicly since January, 2019!
Other Popular Panini Prizm Sets
Those early sets helped lay the groundwork for the surge in popularity that Prizm experienced as the decade continued. But the following few sets helped turn a promising start into a yearly tradition of rabid collecting.
Strong rookie classes and plenty of hype helped anchor Prizm basketball cards in 2015, 2018, and 2019. And for the sake of some brevity (ha!), we won’t highlight 2017, and 2020, but they’re certainly strong candidates given rookie cards of Tatum, Ant man, and Lamelo Ball make an appearance.
2015 (Jokic, Booker, and KAT)
The 2015 set is notable for a few factors. First, this was Kobe Bryant’s final season in the league, meaning any future cards with his likeness would be as a player emeritus rather than a current star.
Prizm also unveiled more parallels, bringing up its total to 14. And finally, 2015 saw the inaugural run of the Silver Prizm. And what timing! The 2015 draft class would produce some of the most exciting league talent, including Nikola Jokic, Devin Booker, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Jokic’s card in particular has become exceptionally collectible as the Serbian superstar continues redefining what’s possible at the center position. His Silver Prizm rookie card in PSA 10 Gem Mint condition is valued at roughly $2,500, with a population near 150 cards (remember those early years had limited print numbers).
2018 (Luka, Trae, and Shai)
Just three years later, and Prizm basketball cards were in its groove. 36 total parallels proliferated the set, including nine numbered /10 or fewer.
But the real hype surrounding this set came from the rookies. The players involved in the 2018 draft weren’t just talented; they electrified audiences. In retrospect, the cream of the crop was Slovenian stud Luka Doncic. But not far behind are other thrillers in Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, as well as defensive standout Jaren Jackson, Jr.
The Doncic-mania was (and still is) real. Fans clamored for his rookie card, including his 1/1 Nebula Prizm card that graded out in Gem Mint condition and is valued at $219,000 at the moment. It has only sold once publicly for over $40,000 in August, 2019.
But even his non-numbered cards were guarded like gold. Remember those earlier Gem Mint Silver cards from above? Pop counts usually hovered around 60-80 in total. As we mentioned, the pop count for the Doncic Silver Prizm in Gem Mint condition is north of 2,250.
Only 200 of those Gem Mints have been graded in the last two years, so the boom has undoubtedly plateaued from the initial buzz. That said, it is clear that by 2018, we’re dealing with not only a company that knows it has a winning product on its hands but also consumers who are well-informed about the value of cards when graded high.
2019 (Zion and Morant)
It’s a bit unfathomable that in just seven years, the number of Prizm basketball card parallels increased nearly 14-fold, with 40+ parallels in this set. For good measure, there were the same number of 1/1 parallels in the 2019 set as total parallels in the inaugural 2012 set.
But let’s not beat around the bush; this set is mentioned here because Luka-fever in 2018 created a foaming-at-the-mouth rabidity in the hobby for exciting rookies. And in 2019, two incomers promised to transform the league forever:
Ja Morant:
and Zion Williamson:
Here’s how desirable these cards were: There are roughly 1,650 Base Anthony Davis Prizm cards (2012 set) in Gem Mint condition. But Ja Morant’s Prizm Base card (2019 set) in Gem Mint condition has a pop count of… wait for it… 22,407. Zion Williamson’s is even greater at 22,879 Gem Mint Base cards. In fact, the number of Williamson’s Silver Prizm Gem Mint cards (1,680) is more on par with Davis’ 2012 Base card figures.
Either way, we’re a long way from 2012, Toto.
Panini Select
As we mentioned earlier, Prizm basketball cards aren’t the only brand put out there by Panini using the “Prizm” monicker. In 2012, the company debuted Select, which quickly grew into a popular basketball label and has been produced every year since.
Among the parallels are those named “Prizm” (just like the Silver Prizm), which can be extremely confusing for collectors. Fortunately, the Select cards look different from their actual Prizm counterparts, though both share a chromium throwback feel.
One of the defining traits of the Select brand is its use of Concourse, Premier, and Courtside levels beginning with the 2014 set. These comprise the Select base set, with each level considered successively more valuable.
When hunting for Select cards, it’s essential to remember those three distinctions. The Courtside set will be the rarest and, by extension, the priciest. Further, don’t throw out the wisdom imparted thus far: Silver Prizms tend to be the most collectible, while the low-serial numbered cards will also hold high value.
Some of those Courtside Select cards are actually far more valuable than its Prizms equivalent. Take, for instance, Ja Morant’s Silver Courtside Rookie Card. In Gem Mint condition, this card is valued at around $1,100; his Silver Prizm, meanwhile, clocks in at less than $500. And it all comes down to one factor: supply. While Morant’s Silver Prizm numbers in the thousands, only 40 PSA 10 Concourse Silvers exist. But Morant’s Concourse Silver (the least rare version of his Select rookie) is worth only $130 and carries a pop count of 731 in PSA 10.
The built-in scarcity for Courtside cards goes a long way toward maintaining the card’s value over time.
A strange caveat to the above: the Die-Cut cards. Die-Cut cards are those that don’t take the traditional rectangular shape of a card. Rather, they look like they’ve been cut out of the original rectangle (hence, the name). These cards are quirky, but, as we’ll see below, are just not as collectible as the others noted above.
Debut of 2012 Panini Select
Before Select developed its Concourse, Premier, and Courtside levels, the inaugural 2012 set debuted imitating the Prizm basketball cards line pretty closely. Four parallels – Prizms, Gold (numbered to 10), Green (numbered to 10), and Black (1 of 1) – were available for the 150-card base set. Note: technically the Green /10 parallel wasn’t included in the product release, but actually a handout as part of the annual Industry Summit conference.
The set also featured a fun “Hot Rookies” insert that would preface some of the bolder Prizm cards to come as the decade progressed. And like Prizm, Select included rookie autographs, and went a step further with jersey autographs. The number of Select parallels have expanded over the years as well. In 2022, the number of parallels has exploded 10-fold to 45!
Prizm Draft Picks (DP)
In addition to Select, it’s worth touching on Panini Prizm Draft Picks (DP), especially in light of a particular French alien joining the league. Prizm DP is generally the first basketball set to be released featuring the year’s incoming crop of talent. Because of its early release date (in 2023, it was October 25), none of the cards feature players in their pro uniforms. As a result, these cards tend to be much less valuable than their Prizm alternatives. But like their Prizm cousins, the Draft Picks set comes in a number of parallels, including a Black Prizm and Nebula Choice Prizm, both 1/1.
That said, DP was the first shot for collectors to get a hold on a Victor Wembanyama card under the Prizm brand. Wemby, as he’s known, is either the most-hyped incoming talent since LeBron James or the bona fide second coming of Jesus Christ. It all depends on who you ask.
Collecting and Investing in Prizm Basketball Cards
Given their popularity, Prizm basketball cards are often viewed as much as an investment as they are collectibles. And for good reason – during the 2020s surge, card prices and values soared.
And while card prices have certainly cooled from their levels two or three years ago, there’s still plenty of big money to be made, evidenced in the table below. Some of the biggest names in basketball sell for tens of thousands of dollars. In fact, Giannis’ Gold Prizm #290 rookie makes four appearances in the top 10 sales over just 12 months.
Top 10 Sales in the Last Year
| Rank | Card Description | Sales Price | Date of Sale |
| #1 | 2013-14 Panini Prizm Gold Prizm #290 Giannis Antetokounmpo Rookie Card /10 – BGS Gem Mint 9.5 | $216,000 | Jan. 5, 2023 |
| #2 | 2018 Panini Prizm Black Gold Prizm Luka Doncic Rookie /5 #280 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint | $204,000 | Mar. 16, 2023 |
| #3 | 2013 Panini Prizm Gold Prizm Giannis Antetokounmpo Rookie /10 #290 PSA 9 Mint | $156,000 | Jan. 19, 2023 |
| #4 | 2013-14 Panini Prizm Gold Prizm #290 Giannis Antetokounmpo Rookie /10 – BGS Gem Mint 9.5 | $115,200 | May 31, 2023 |
| #5 | 2013-14 Panini Prizm Autographs Gold Prizm #33 Giannis Antetokounmpo Signed Rookie Card /10 – PSA Gem Mint 10 | $114,000 | Nov. 26, 2022 |
| #6 | 2012-13 Panini Prizm Gold Prizm #72 Stephen Curry 10 – PSA Mint 9 | $114,000 | Jun. 28, 2023 |
| #7 | 2018 Panini Prizm Black Gold Luka Doncic Rookie 5/5 #280 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint | $96,000 | Oct. 19, 2023 |
| #8 | 2019 Panini Prizm Black Gold Prizms Ja Morant Rookie /5 #249 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint | $90,000 | Nov. 17, 2022 |
| #9 | 2013 Panini Prizm Giannis Antetokounmpo Gold Prizm /10 Rookie #290 PSA Mint 9 | $84,000 | Jul. 14, 2023 |
| #10 | 2019-20 Panini Prizm Premium Black Shimmer Prizm #248 Zion Williamson Rookie Card /1 – BGS Gem Mint 9.5 | $72,000 | Nov. 27, 2022 |
And listen, (speaking from personal experience) it’s a bit daunting trying to navigate the wide world of basketball cards. Fortunately, we’ve assembled an Ultimate Guide to Collecting Basketball Cards, perfect for rookies and Hall of Fame collectors.
Explosion in Parallels and Pop Counts
We’ve already alluded to it, but it’s probably worth underscoring again just how significant a difference a few years makes in pop counts. This is likely a combination of two factors. First (and primarily), Panini printed more cards as demand spiked for its products throughout the 2010s and early 2020s. Second, as interest spiked, collectors inevitably realized the value that cards carry. This means better preservation right out of the pack and a higher likelihood that a card is sent off to be graded.
Here’s how the pop counts of Silver PSA 10 Gem Mint cards have changed over the last decade, using popular players from each set as a benchmark. All info is gathered from CardLadder.
| Year | Player | Silver PSA 10 Pop Count |
| 2012 | Anthony Davis | 33 |
| 2013 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 80 |
| 2014 | Joel Embiid | 85 |
| 2015 | Nikola Jokic | 149 |
| 2016 | Jaylen Brown | 273 |
| 2017 | Jayson Tatum | 830 |
| 2018 | Luka Doncic | 2,251 |
| 2019 | Zion Williamson | 1,680 |
| 2020 | Anthony Edwards | 1,383 |
Even the now uber-collectible cards from Panini’s start — Giannis Antetokoumpo and Nikola Jokic — have exceptionally low pop counts when compared to the latter years. But by the late ’10s, Prizm’s impact on the hobby is clearly seen. Collectors know that their cards are valuable, leading to much higher Gem Mint hit rates than before thanks to more careful pre-grading preservation methods.
Most Popular Parallels
It’s not just the pop counts of Prizm basketball cards that have exploded since the 2012 debut. Though the 2012 set saw just three total parallels, the 2022-23 set saw 52 parallels (down from 58 in 2021).
For Prizm basketball cards, the Olympic rules are in play: Silver and Gold tend to be some of the more popular parallels. And generally speaking, any of the low-number count parallels are always going to hold value, regardless of design. These include the Black Prizms 1/1 (debut in 2013) and the Black Mosaic Prizms 1/1 (debut in 2013), the Orange Prizms /60 (debut in 2013), the Mojo Prizms /25 (debut in 2015), and the Choice Nebula 1/1 (debut in 2018).
With the wide range of parallels, there are plenty of opportunities for color-matching, which also drives up a card’s value. For instance, the Luka Doncic rookie card in a Blue parallel might be worth a bit more money simply because the color matching from the blue border gels well with his blue Mavs jersey.
And the typical rules of serial numbers apply – the numbered cards are usually more valuable than non-numbered cards, and jersey match cards, i.e., cards where the serial number matches a player’s jersey number, are also more valuable as they are sought by collectors.
Least Popular Parallels
However, it’s not all butterflies and Blue Shimmers when it comes to parallels. Not all parallels are made equally, and, perhaps more importantly, not all numbered parallels are made equally.
As Panini printed more and more parallels, it was only a matter of time before there was a collective head-scratching at some of the reveals. Disco and Fast Break, for instance, offer only slight variations on the same general concept. Also less valuable are the Die-Cut cards from Prizm and Select, which aren’t as sought after by collectors.
As a result, it’s not uncommon to see even low-numbered, less popular parallels valued at far less than a similarly numbered popular parallel. Let’s take a look:
| Less Popular Card | Less Popular Card Value | Popular Card (Same Year, Player, & Grade) | Popular Card Value |
| 2018 Luka Doncic Prizm Fast Break Neon Green /5 PSA 10 | $48,670 | Gold Prizm /10 | $205,460 |
| 2018 Shai Gilgeous-Alex. Prizm Fast Break Neon Green /5 BGS 9.5 | $2,759 | Black Gold /5 | $26,000 |
| 2020 Anthony Edwards Prizm Pink Pulsar /42 PSA 10 | $1,930 | Blue /199 | $3,720 |
| 2013 Giannis Ant. Prizm Die-Cut Light Blue /199 PSA 10 | $3,350 | Blue Prizm | $4,920 |
In each case above, we see how a card’s serial number is far from the only factor that goes into its value. Sure, a Neon Green Fast Break /5 will cost nearly $50,000 (first row above). But the “Fast Break” puts a hard ceiling, which is abundantly clear when looking at a more popular parallel with only a slightly higher serial count like the Gold Prizm.
The third row on that chart should really hammer this point home. On one hand, we have a low-numbered Anthony Edwards card (/42) up against a 5x-higher numbered Blue Prizm (/199). The more popular Blue Prizm still outsold the rare Pink Pulsar by almost 2:1.
Balance Rarity, Popularity, and Sustainability
While Prizm basketball cards have become the hot item on the market, the tried and true rules of collecting don’t go out the window. Factors like scarcity, and popularity rule the day, along with proper storage and overall condition. Striking the right balance between scarcity and performance is paramount when investing in Prizm basketball cards.
Let’s discuss two of those in a bit more detail. Starting with popularity, it’s important to remember that the better a player’s career is, the more likely it is that their card will hold onto its value. For instance, while Luka Doncic’s Silver Prizm has come down from its sky-high price in the early 2020s, it’s still stabilized at twice its initial value. This is due, in large part, to Doncic’s exceptional play and staying relevant on the national stage.
The other factor worth touching on is scarcity. This is usually the flip side of a player’s sustained skill – the better they play, the more likely a collector will send their card in for grading. As a result, pop counts often rise over time. This lack of scarcity puts a hard ceiling on a card’s value. CardLadder is an excellent way to monitor a player’s pop count over time.
Let’s examine three PSA 10 Base Cards to see how pop count can crater a card’s value:
| Player | Value | Pop Count Growth In Last Two Years |
| 2013 Giannis A. Panini Prizm RC | $689.30 | 2,545 to 2,969 (+414) |
| 2012 Damian Lillard Panini Prizm RC | $249 | 836 to 1,199 (+363) |
| 2019 Ja Morant Panini Prizm RC | $60 | 15,185 to 22,407 (+7,222) |
Just look at those pop counts – a few thousand between Giannis and his newly minted Bucks teammate Damian Lillard versus the sky-high figure for Ja Morant. Keep in mind that Ja Morant was one of the most hyped players when his card was released in 2019. But as his pop count continued rising, it’s unsurprising to see his card’s value plummet. Of course, a series of off-court issues also hurt his card’s value, which is yet another reminder that it’s impossible to divorce the player from the card.
To see additional examples of how to perform this type of evaluation, checkout our 2023 NBA Buyers Guide.
Buying Prizm Basketball Cards
While eBay and MySlabs have made it easier than ever to purchase individual cards, we have to put at least a little respect on the wax. Over the course of its run producing Prizm basketball cards, Panini has unveiled an assortment of wax boxes, beginning with the lone hobby box in 2012 and growing from there.
By 2019, there were seven wax pack varieties: the Hobby Box, First Off The Line Box, Retail Box, Blaster Box, Mega Box, Hanger Box, and Multi-Pack Box. The most significant difference between the boxes (other than price) is what’s included inside. For instance, a Hobby Box typically includes two autograph cards, ten inserts, and 22 parallels, while the First Off The Line Box consists of all of the same, plus two Shimmer parallels.
Interestingly, the more valuable boxes tend to be older, despite the intense interest in cards during the latter half of the 2010s. For instance, a 2012 Hobby Box is valued at $5,880, while the Ja Morant-Zion Williamson Hobby Box from 2019 is only valued at $725.
The Select Hobby Box reflects its status as a less valuable alternative to Prizms. The 2020 Hobby Box, for instance, is valued at $450 sealed, while 2020 Prizm will top $1,000.
As you might expect, wax boxes for the Draft Picks are also generally cheaper than Prizm boxes. Currently, the 2020 Draft Picks Hobby Box is worth around $180 sealed, roughly five times less than the Prizm Hobby Box from the same year.
Also, remember that these boxes are often treated like gold when a new set is released. Therefore, it might be worth waiting for the initial craze to pass and letting the prices go down before purchasing one.
Conclusion: The Future of Prizm Basketball Cards
How will we remember Prizm basketball cards in 15, 20, 30 years? Will we recall this decade fondly for its striking ability to bring the hobby back from the brink? Or will we remember the appalling and endless number of parallels, each non-numbered one slightly less valuable than the next? Will the market be flooded with Green and Disco parallels, ringing in a new Junk Wax Era? Or will these cards have the iconic look of the 80s designs featuring the likes of Michael Jordan and Charles Barkley?
One thing is for sure: changes are on the horizon. Fanatics has secured the rights to produce NBA cards, much like Panini did over a decade ago. This leaves the company at a crossroads: they could pursue a merger with Fanatics, much like the latter acquired Topps last year.
Another important question: will Panini remain collectible after Fanatics unveils its own line of NBA cards? It’s difficult to imagine Prizm basketball cards going anywhere from a collectibles perspective, but it’s entirely possible to see only a select few cards remaining especially popular and valuable. Regardless, basketball cards are in a similarly unsure position to 2012. Things worked out well then, but it remains to be seen if lightning will strike twice.
In the meantime, all we can do is look forward to the much anticipated drop of 2023-24 Panini Prizm Basketball, due out February 7, 2024 with an MSRP rumored at $450 for Hobby boxes.