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Last Updated On: July 28th, 2024
Whether you’re a new entrant to the hobby or a picky collector who’s built an impressive personal collection, we know more or less what makes a player’s cards collectible. Factors like player performance, career accolades, card scarcity, aesthetic quality, and hype tend to go a long way in formulating value.
But what about the other elements? You know, the X-factors. The truth is that while all the above qualities are important, they’re far from the only factors to consider.
Below, we’ll highlight three X factors that can bolster a player’s collectibility: charisma, marketability, and personality. Along the way, we’ll discuss some exceptions and anomalies to these factors. By the end of the post, you should have a more comprehensive appreciation for and understanding of the ingredients that combine to make a player collectible, and their cards ultimately valuable.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
Overview
First things first, this post isn’t designed to be a complete list of the features that make a player’s cards collectible or valuable. At the risk of stating the obvious: you can collect anything and everything.
Our primary goal is to identify the X factors that turn a great player into superstar status particularly when it comes to collecting.
We noted a card’s scarcity and quality, and a player’s performance on-field/court/diamond/rink/pitch help determine a card’s value. Additionally, seasonality can impact cards as we talked about in our 2024 baseball and basketball guides.
This collection of factors forms what we’ll call “the floor of collectibility.” It probably doesn’t matter how marketable your card is if the corners are torn or fraying. If a card belongs to a low-serial number, the scarcity alone might be enough to overcome a player’s lack of charisma. And if a player is a legend, then there will likely always be some demand for their card (although even his cards have cooled to an interesting entry point.)
Sports are all about squeezing as much as you can out of yourself to beat an opponent. But how do you differentiate when it comes to the battle between ultra-talented Hall of Famers?
Let’s try with these three factors.
3 X Factors to Look for (With Examples)
Keep in mind that the following X factors are related more to the player than the card itself.
Charisma
According to personal trainer Johnny Dunbar, “[c]harismatic leaders have the ability to inspire, motivate, and elevate the performance of their team. . . . At the heart of charismatic leadership is a magnetic presence that draws people in.”
Think about a leader or athlete you like. For some reason you like them, but you just can’t explain it away? It goes beyond x’s and o’s, beyond the box score or record. That’s charisma.
And it plays a critical role in how we root for particular athletes and even how we elect our politicians:
An immediate example that comes to mind is Magic Johnson. The five-time NBA champion and “maestro” of the Showtime Lakers, Johnson was the type of player for which teammates ran through walls. His larger-than-life persona not only uplifted his teammates but also the organization with which he played.
As The Athletic quoted from former Lakers owner Jerry Buss:
“The charisma of Magic changed what defined Laker basketball, and we rode it high.”
There’s also quiet charisma. Think of someone like Derek Jeter or Ted Williams, two baseball stars who led more by their actions than hype-filled postgame commentary. The end result tends to be the same; their teammates still admire the heck out of them, but the players themselves earn it in different ways.
Unlike a step-back three or moonshot home run, charisma can’t be learned. It tends to be a quality identified and nurtured from a young age; phoniness can be seen right through. To that end, there are several players who, despite incredible careers, lack in the charisma department.
Example of Players Lacking Charisma
Think about your Kevin Durants or James Hardens. Both are clearly two of the top 75 basketball players of all time, but they aren’t leaders in the same way as some of their teammates have been (Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Draymond Green, etc.)
As an example, let’s look at the following career stat-lines:
Player A: 5-time champion, 2-time MVP, 3-time Finals MVP, 15-time All-Star, 1,392 games played, 34.0 MPG, 19.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 3.0 APG
Player B: 5-time champion, one-time MVP, 2-time Finals MVP, 18-time All-Star, 1,346 games played, 36.1 MPG, 25.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.7 APG
Any guesses?
Player A is Spurs star Tim Duncan, while B is Lakers legend Kobe Bryant. Both players fall in similar slots as far as accolades; Bryant takes the cake for PPG, but Duncan averaged a double-double over his career.
But when we look at each player’s Topps Chrome Refractor rookie cards, we see a massive gulf between Duncan’s value ($4,940 in Gem Mint) and Bryant’s ($166,700 in Gem Mint). Some of this is due to pop count – there are 107 Gem Mints graded to Bryant’s 63 – but isn’t there more to the story?
Yes, Duncan might have been the epitome of stoic confidence, but Bryant simply oozed charisma every time he stepped on the floor. While I believe Duncan to be the better player, Bryant had more of a relationship with fans and media (no doubt thanks to his location in Southern California).
Charisma might not be worth a hundred thousand dollars, but it certainly counts for something.
Marketability
Related to charisma is the notion of marketability. Charismatic players tend to get a boost in the marketability department, with attention from well-known brands offering big shoe deals and other endorsement opportunities. But other players benefit simply because of their proximity to media and power.
Historically, the epicenters of marketability are New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Leagues have favored franchises in these cities when scheduling nationally televised games; the Lakers led the league with 25 nationally televised games during the 2013-14 season despite a dismal 27-55 record.
Marketability also extends to factors that make a player unique. Yao Ming was highly touted as the best Chinese prospect to debut in the NBA in the 21st century; Michael Vick’s ability to dice up defenses with his arm and legs took fans by storm, and Shohei Ohtani’s two-way prowess is otherworldly.
An example of proximity to power playing a role in marketability can be seen in Shohei Ohtani. In November 2023, Ohtani’s 2018 Topps Chrome Pitching Refractor card was valued around $450.
In December 2023, Ohtani announced a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Not only did the transition represent jumping from the lowly Angels to the mighty Dodgers, but Ohtani saw the card value rise to $750.
Example of Players Lacking Marketability
Location is only one factor that can hurt a player’s marketability. Sustained injuries or off-court issues can create at least a temporary ceiling on a player’s cards. Ja Morant, once arguably one of the most marketable players in the NBA, saw his status crater as a result of injuries and off-court legal issues.
Similarly, Morant’s Silver Prizm values tanked as a result:
Morant’s is a strange case of charisma bumping against marketability. For now, the lack of marketability is winning the battle. Such is the essence of marketability: how well your brand holds up when you aren’t competing.
Personality
A player’s personality is another key X factor determining a card’s value. And personality means many different traits. Indeed, it can equate to the charisma factor discussed above, but less-than-charismatic players can still exude a winning personality.
Take Peyton Manning. At face value, he’s hardly football’s most outgoing or charismatic personality. Yet there’s something loveable about his goofy personality. Heck, even Saturday Night Live noticed (his short “United Way” remains one of my favorite things to come out of the show):
Another figure is Charles Barkley, who’s struck a balance between his funny, self-effacing takes and his role as a plain truth-teller. He’s parlayed his personality into an entire brand, serving as a lightning rod for TNT’s much beloved (and endangered) Inside the NBA.
Example of Players Lacking Personality
There’s one glimmering example of a player who lacks any semblance of a personality: Kawhi Leonard. It’s such a strange dichotomy between his otherworldly talent and the apparent lack of concern he has for the sport.
Currently, Leonard’s 2012 Silver Prizm in Gem Mint condition is valued at around $1,800 by Card Ladder with a pop count of around 44. Other rookies from his class include Anthony Davis ($1,500 value) and Damian Lillard ($1,200).
It’s not surprising that Leonard’s card is valued more than Davis and Lillards’. But $300? Leonard is a 2-time champion and 2-time Finals MVP. There were moments when he was legitimately the best player in the world. And yet, there appears to be ceiling to Leonard’s flagship card.
What’s worse: Leonard plays for Los Angeles. His two previous stops, San Antonio and Toronto, were minuscule markets compared to his new home. Conventionally, we’d think his move to LA would lead to big gains in his card’s value (although the Clippers aren’t exactly LA’s preferred team). Unfortunately, his lack of personality and charisma seem to be hurting his collectibility, and his card values by extension.
Some Exceptions / Anomalies
Not every player’s career and personality fits neatly into these boxes. Let’s highlight a positive and negative example. Positive means that their cards are highly collectible even though they don’t quite check the boxes, and negative means their cards should arguably have more value given their qualities but currently do not.
Positive example: Mike Trout
If you grew up in the ‘80s and ‘90s, you knew what Michael Jordan looked like because his face was on everything. If you’re growing up today and don’t follow baseball particularly closely, you may not know Mike Trout from a Rainbow Trout.
Trout, often compared to baseball legend Mickey Mantle, isn’t regularly thought of as charismatic, nor is his personality larger than life. He also doesn’t really benefit from marketability, as he plays for Los Angeles’ junior varsity team (the Angels).
Despite these negative factors, Trout’s cards remain extremely collectible. His 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects Autograph Superfractor 1/1 is one of the most valuable baseball cards in Card Ladder’s index.
So how’d he do it? Trout appears to have beaten the odds by being the face of baseball and slaying statistically (probably in the 99 percentile of players when it comes to performance with a top 50 WAR all time).
Negative example: Dwyane Wade
Dwyane Wade will be rightfully remembered as one of the best guards in the first part of the 21st century. A three-time champion, Finals MVP, 13-time All-Star, and Olympic gold medalist. He also played in a huge market — Miami — and has gone on to showcase his charisma and personality as a game show host.
So why do his cards tend to lag behind his peers? We’re not exactly sure. Opportunity? Maybe.
Dwyane Wade’s 2003 Topps Chrome rookie has a population around 1,100 PSA 10s, and trades for $115. It’s not a bad figure, but it weirdly sits on par with fellow 2003 selection Carmelo Anthony’s Topps Chrome rookie card, despite the latter never winning a ring (but did play in New York).
The comparison is even more shocking when we look at another of Wade’s peers and teammates. LeBron James’ 2003 Topps Chrome rookie has a pop count well north of 2,300 cards and sells for nearly $4,200. An eye-opening factor of 22 to 1, and that’s not even considering the 2x difference in pop counts!
Wade is also a nearly 22-to-1 relative to Kobe Bryant. Kobe’s ’96 Chrome rookie card has a pop of 837 PSA 10s and sells for $4,300 – and the funny thing is that ’96 Chrome is prone to greening, which, in theory, could put some ceiling on the cards over the long term.
What About a Player like Nikola Jokić?
Nikola Jokic makes for an interesting test case of these X factors. As it stands, he’s not the most charismatic player, he doesn’t play in a major media market (Denver), nor does his personality loom large over his peers. Although there’s little disputing that he’s put together one of the most historic four-year runs of any individual in NBA history.
But there’s some reason to believe his cards might overcome these negatives. For instance, Jokic was not a lottery pick, meaning his cards were likely swept aside in favor of his higher-drafted peers. As a result, Jokic’s total pop count is just 1,020 (total!), while other lottery picks from that year, like Devin Booker (5,824) and Karl-Anthony Towns (4,504), have sky-high pop counts.
Further, there’s a positive upside to Jokic’s steadfastly vanilla personality. While some players rise and fall based on what happens off the court, Jokic’s lowkey personal life offers at least some level of stability.
Finally, Jokic’s game should age like fine wine. He doesn’t rely on overpowering his opponents like center Joel Embiid; his vision and passing should ensure a smooth landing to the end of his career.
Conclusion
When you purchase a card, you’re not only making an investment in the cardboard, but in the player, as well. You’re ostensibly gambling that a given player will either (a) put together a Hall of Fame career if they’re a rookie or (b) see their legacy age like fine wine, enduring despite the legions of athletes hoping to take their place.
The three factors we discussed here – charisma, marketability, and personality – all elevate a player’s status beyond what they accomplish in the arena. And the more marketable, charismatic, and personable the players are, the better their cards tend to perform as a result. Each can take an under-the-radar card and make it truly pop.
If we think about the legends of the game, they all tend to fit into at least one of these molds. Jordan had an indefatigable motor that made his brand one of the most marketable of all time. Anthony Edwards’ charisma makes it seem as though there are two of him on the court at any time. And Tom Brady’s cool, professional demeanor only added to his air of invincibility.
Not only do these factors help to identify cemented stars, but also those on the come-up. The next time you watch a rookie’s interviews or hear interesting tidbits about his pre-draft process, consider whether that fits into one of these categories. If so, you might have the inside track to a potential under-the-radar star.
Think we missed any X factors? Do you have any additional examples of players exhibiting (or not exhibiting) these qualities? Let us know in the comments below!