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Last Updated On: June 21st, 2024
Few players benefitted from the pandemic-era sports card surge as much as Tom Brady. While Michael Jordan or Luka Doncic (and basketball generally) will likely be remembered as the poster children of early 2020s collecting, the era caught the QB GOAT at the twilight of his storied career.
However, Brady’s cards’ values have fallen considerably in recent years. For collectors, this represents a compelling entry point; a formerly unattainable card could be gettable for the first time in years.
In this post, we will highlight three important Tom Brady rookie cards in the buy zone right now: his 2000 SP Authentic #118, 2000 Playoff Contenders #144, and 2000 SPx #130. We’ll also discuss where to find Brady cards and what to look for when hunting for the seven-time Super Bowl champ’s cards.
Table of Contents
Overview
Let’s start with a chart most collectors are all too familiar with, especially of late: the middle finger chart. The name applies in more ways than one; for starters, the graph itself closely resembles an actual middle finger, while the sense of dread you may feel looking at it mirrors the feeling of getting the bird flipped your way in traffic.
What we see with Brady’s Player Index (courtesy of Card Ladder) is a rapid rise in the early 2020s, fueled by the end of his career, his seventh Super Bowl win with Tampa Bay, and a generalized sense of FOMO among collectors around this time.
Unfortunately, the middle finger is only a middle finger if there’s a downward slope on the other end…
But there is some reason for optimism. Brady’s value surge in the early 2020s was never going to be sustainable, and getting in while the card is on the decline isn’t always the shrewdest move, especially if a card continues its nosedive.
Instead, we want to see stabilization in the form of a leveling-off. This suggests the card’s value is steady (for the time being). In other words, a floor is forming, and we’re getting to the bottom of Tom Brady’s cards’ values (we hope).
Over the last six months, that’s precisely what we’ve seen. Here’s a closer look at the graph above:
We see that the decline (the downward slope of the middle finger) has actually tapered off recently. Over the last six months, we’re looking at a roughly 5% decline, far more stable than before. It gives us a feeling that some Tom Brady rookie cards might have found their floor.
With this floor in mind, let’s get into three cards that present excellent buy-now opportunities.
3 Tom Brady Rookie Cards to Buy Now
Before getting into the nitty-gritty, let’s talk about criteria. First and foremost, the cards on this list make for great buy-now Tom Brady rookie cards. They are excellent hold opportunities for the long-term (this is just our opinion, do your own due diligence!).
A collector looking for a fast flip probably will be disappointed at the return in say, a month. Rather, a buyer interested in playing the long game or a Tom Brady superfan could use this as an opportunity to get their hands on a card that was extremely pricy just a few years ago.
Additionally, we aren’t solely focused on price. Our calculation takes into consideration the population of graded cards as well. Since scarcity is a tried and true factor in determining a card’s value, it makes for a great indicator whether a card will retain that value over time.
Finally, consider the difference between the market in 2024 vis-a-vis 2020. And I don’t just mean the sports cards market; inflation has driven up prices tremendously since the pre-pandemic era.
Consider that U.S. inflation has commutatively risen over 20% from 2020 through 2024. That means something that cost $100 in January 2020 is around $120 today due to the impact of inflation alone. So keep in mind that if a Brady card has returned to pre-pandemic prices (or close enough), it’s actually even cheaper when adjusted for inflation!
2000 SP Authentic RC #118 /1250 BGS 9
The first Tom Brady rookie card we’ll discuss is his all important 2000 SP Authentic #118 /1250, specifically in BGS 9 Mint condition.
If we look at the card’s sales history, we see the familiar middle finger graph:
In mid-August 2020, this card was going for just under $10,000, after hovering around $5,000 since 2017. Less than two years later, the card hit its peak at around $27,500. But today, the card is selling for less than its 2020 pricing:
Here’s why this chart is a big deal: $6,799 in 2024 dollars is equal to roughly $5,666 in 2020 dollars when adjusting for inflation. Which means that this card is currently selling for around $3,000 less than it was right before the upward slope began in August 2020.
Listen, that’s cold comfort for someone who has to shell out nearly $7,000 for a single card. But it’s proof that these cards are selling for as little as they have in quite some time.
Additionally, the card’s BGS population growth offers more positives:
Over the last three years, the supply has increased at a slow clip, around 6.5% since April 2020. Typically, we might expect prices to stagnate over time as supply remains constant, but in the face of this steady supply, prices have actually decreased.
If you’re looking to pick nits in our case, look no further than a series of posts we made concerning trends related to BGS. It’s fair to ask if this card’s declining price is caused more by the grader than the card itself.
To that end, remember that you’re buying the card, not necessarily the slab. At its current price point, one could purchase the 2000 SP Authentic rookie card, send it in for a regrade, and potentially get lucky with a better grade from PSA or SGC.
2000 Playoff Contenders RC Auto #144 BGS 8.5
The next of our Tom Brady rookie cards to make the list is his best one: the 2000 Playoff Contenders RC Auto #144 in a BGS 8.5 grade. This card is one of the coolest Brady rookies and features the legend’s autograph alongside one of football’s most iconic card designs, the playoff ticket.
Let’s be clear, this card is not for the faint of heart. It’s an investment, a bet on the future value of Tom Brady rookie cards. Our focus is on identifying the ones that are likely to appreciate in value over time.
Before the pandemic, the 2000 Playoff Contenders Brady rookie card in BGS 8.5 sold at $12,600 in December 2019.
Today, the card is available for around $15,000 after peaking at $84,000 in January 2022. Adjusting for inflation once more, today’s $15,000 ($12,500 in 2020 dollars) is strikingly close to the December 2019 price ($12,600).
Wonderfully enough, the card’s population has remained steady, with just five new BGS 8.5 grades since April 2021. We love to see those population figures remain low!
Once again, this card doesn’t come cheap. But if you’re planning for the long haul, getting in on the card now at $15,000 is back in alignment with pre-2020 price trends, all while Brady nabbed another Super Bowl to boot.
2000 SPx RC #130 /1350 PSA 9
Of all the Tom Brady rookie cards on this list, the 2000 SPx #130 /1350 in PSA 9 Mint is the most affordable of the bunch (if that can be said for a 4-figure card). The card itself is also a cool throwback to the late ‘90s/early 2000s mode of tech-inspired graphic design. And who doesn’t love the sweet red Pats jerseys? (Sorry, Jets fans.)
Before the pandemic, the 2000 SPx #130 card was available for less than $2,000. While it hasn’t quite reached that same low, it’s back to reasonable-ish territory at $3,476 in 2024, which roughly translates to $2,897 in 2020 dollars. Not a bad price, especially considering the card peaked at well over $10,000 in January 2022.
Add in a steady pop count (16 new PSA 9 grades since January 2022; 10.5% growth), and we see why this card is a buy-now option for Tom Brady rookie cards. That said, and if you want to be opportunistic, holding off a little bit longer to see if the card drifts closer to the mid-$2,000 range might be worth the gamble (although we’re not sure it will get much lower from here either).
What not to Buy (or be weary of)
As you’ve garnered by this point, the goal of this post was to find compelling Tom Brady rookie cards based on those that are nearing their 2020 prices. But what about other (perhaps more popular) entry points, such as Brady’s 2018 Kaboom! card?
Here’s why the Kaboom! doesn’t qualify for this list: we don’t quite know where the card’s floor is just yet. Yes, the sales graph does resemble similar charts above:
However, the 2024 price point (still around $4,000) is nowhere near that of 2020 ($255). In fact, this card is still around 15-times the price of its 2020 value even after coming down 70% from its peak.
Meanwhile, the Brady Kaboom!’s pop growth in PSA 10 has increased 50% — from 28 Gems in April 2021 to 42 as of today. None of the other cards listed here have seen pop jumps anywhere close (perhaps a by-product of Kaboom!’s enduring enthusiasm within the hobby?)
It could bottom here, or have further room to fall. Nobody knows, but it’s certainly not near 2020 prices. If any card could find a floor at 15x 2020 prices, it would be a Brady Kaboom! But since we can’t tell if it has bottomed out with any dependable price history, it simply couldn’t make the cut.
Where to Find Brady Cards
Keep in mind that, when hunting for Tom Brady rookie cards, you’re likely going to have to frequently search auction platforms like Goldin, PWCC, or eBay. Brady’s rookie cards tend to be extremely valuable, and the price-points can vary based on collectors’ desires to let them go at market prices. To put it another way, it’s not uncommon for collectors to list the cards at fixed price-points above recent market prices that we have noted above. So it’s important to look regularly to find cards in an auction, or where an offer can be submitted at a number lower than list price.
Another platform worthy of checking is MySlabs. Fees for sellers and buyers are lower on the MySlabs platform, so the price paid for a Brady could be significantly less versus several of the other platforms mentioned.
Finally, it’s no surprise Tom Brady rookie cards make a consistent appearance on our top 75 most watched Football cards list. Be sure to bookmark the page to find your next Brady rookie.
Summary: It’s Brady Buying Season
In our estimation, the Playoff Contenders, SP Authentic, and 2000 SPx Tom Brady rookie cards make for excellent investments right now. When a card is nearing its 2020 baseline, we get a decent sense that a floor is forming (and that the pandemic-era craze is receding.)
In short, it’s a buyer’s market for Tom Brady rookie cards. And not just TB12’s, either. You can follow a similar approach to the one laid out in this post for any other card or player, including those in our 2024-25 football card guide. Here are the general steps we recommend:
- Use Card Ladder to look up a given card
- Analyze Card Ladder’s historical sales data to get a sense of pre-and post-pandemic prices (also adjust for inflation if you’re finicky like us, by multiplying the 2020 data point times 1.2 to tack on 20% inflation)
- Examine the card’s population growth over time and cross-check against different grades to make a judgment call
- Go shopping!
If you follow these steps, we imagine you’ll find a host of potential entry points into once-unattainable cards. And when you do stumble upon such a card, let us know in the comments below!