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Last Updated On: March 29th, 2024
Few entities benefitted from the pandemic-era sports card boom quite like PSA. The company rode its sleek slabs to the top of the grading food chain, processing nearly 30,000 cards daily at its 2021 peak.
PSA’s rise has closely coincided with another trend: BGS’s abrupt market share decline. In February 2024, for instance, BGS processed 66,000 grades compared to PSA’s 1.24 million. For those keeping track at home, PSA graded roughly 42,759 cards per day, or nearly two-thirds as many cards BGS processed over the entire month.
It’s a monumental shift that means more than a less profitable bottom line for BGS. As BGS has lost ground in the hobby, the values of its Gem Mint cards have also stagnated (or declined) in comparison to PSA’s Gem Mints.
This post will demonstrate the BGS 9.5 vs PSA 10 catastrophe by examining several different cards. We won’t diagnose the reasons for BGS’ fall from grace, but stay tuned – that’s coming down the pike.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
Overview
Let’s begin with one mystery around BGS 9.5 vs PSA 10 pricing: the cost to slab. At their cheapest, the gulf between PSA ($19) and BGS ($18) isn’t wide.
The idea behind slabbing is simple: it’s a way to authenticate, protect, and add value to your cards. Though, fair warning, not all slabs are created equal; Some grading companies, like BCCG (now defunct), add zero to no value.
That the value of a PSA 10 is significantly higher than a BGS 9.5 tells us quite a bit about how the hobby views both graders. Put yourself in the shoes of a collector: if you face the prospect of grading a card and could spend $19 for its value to increase nearly five times as much as the $18 option, you’d view the $19 option as an absolute steal.
And these aren’t abstract numbers we’re plugging into the example above. Check out this value chart for Michael Jordan’s 1986 Fleer #57, one of the most sought-after cards in the hobby:
Jordan’s BGS 9.5 card is around 18% of the value of a PSA 10 – meaning it’s over five times less valuable than a PSA 10.
| Grade | Jan. 2022 Price | Mar. 2024 Price | Change (%) |
| BGS 9.5 | $67,500 | $39,200 | -41.93% |
| PSA 10 | $324,000 | $216,000 | -33.33% |
This chart is precisely what keeps BGS executives up at night. The same card, same grade (in theory); the only difference is the plastic. And BGS’ plastic is just 0.182 of the value of PSA 10, meaning the PSA 10 is over 5x more valuable.
We’ll dive into multiple high pop examples since they’re more liquid than MJ rookies, but the MJ is still a solid look into how the market is dismissing BGS 9.5 slabs (and possibly for good reason).
BGS 9.5 vs PSA 10 Value Comparison
Putting the Jordan card aside, let’s take a closer look at two more iconic rookies: the LeBron James 2003 Topps Chrome RC and Shohei Ohtani 2018 Topps Chrome RC. A close inspection of their values exemplifies the onesided battle between BGS 9.5 and PSA 10.
LeBron James 2003 Topps Chrome RC
Before Panini revolutionized the basketball card sphere, there was Topps. And in 2003, it produced this absolute gem of a card: a 2003 Topps Chrome #111 LeBron James.
Let’s take a closer look at how the BGS 9.5 and PSA 10 values of this LeBron RC have changed over the last two years:
If we consult the last two years of data, a clear trend emerges: both values trend in similar directions and follow similarly timed rises and falls. This suggests that neither card is totally immune from the general trends within the hobby (and it’s no secret that things have come down since the early 2020s).
The following tables underscores this idea:
| Date | BGS 9.5 AVG | PSA 10 AVG | Price Ratio BGS 9.5:PSA 10 |
| February 2024 | $1,929 | $4,477 | 0.431 |
| January 2022 | $4,968 | $10,516 | 0.472 |
The general pricing ratios for this card have been similar over the last two years. It’s not like one value has wildly swung when compared to the other; rather, they’ve followed similar lines, outside of a new ratio low of 0.358 set in October 2023 (that means a BGS 9.5 plummeted down to just 35.8% of the value of a PSA 10) before bouncing in the new year. What this tells us is that there is a much lower ceiling on BGS 9.5 cards than PSA.
Bear in mind there are more BGS 9.5s in the Beckett population report versus PSA. Here’s how both grading companies shake out, with the far right column depicting population growth over the last two years for additional context.
| Pop Growth | Jan. 2022 | Feb. 2024 | Growth |
| PSA 10 | 2,158 | 2,282 | 5.75% |
| BGS 9.5 | 3,252 | 3,400 | 4.55% |
| BGS 9.5 Relative to PSA 10 Pop | 150.70% | 149% | – |
The significantly high number of BGS 9.5s in the market would normally lead us to believe that it is a primary reason why the PSA 10 LeBron card is more valuable than its BGS 9.5 counterpart. However, the next example tells a very different story.
Shohei Ohtani 2018 Topps Chrome RC
It’s not just basketball that’s seeing its BGS prices fall. Let’s look at this high-pop Shohei Ohtani RC (and keep in mind, baseball is an area where, historically, BGS has thrived):
Here’s how the values and pop counts have changed over time:
| Grade | Value Jan. 2022 (Pop) | Value Mar. 2024 (Pop) | Pop Change |
| PSA 10 Gem Mint | $212 – 230 (3,126) | $195 – $224 (11,661) | 273% ^ |
| BGS 9.5 Gem Mint | $120 – $140 (259) | $129 – 140 (534) | 106% ^ |
Check out those numbers! The PSA count has climbed considerably, yet the card has retained its value regardless. Two years later, there are literally thousands more PSA 10 cards, and the card is over 50% more valuable than BGS 9.5 with only 534 copies in the market—that’s less than 5% as many PSA 10s.
It’s a daunting sign for BGS, who might expect lower pop-counts to equal greater scarcity, which traditionally means better-valued cards. BGS’ decline defies even the most basic laws of economics.
Comparing BGS 10 vs PSA 10 Prices
In the war of BGS 9.5 vs PSA 10, it’s clear which side has come out on top over the last four-plus years. But what about comparing a PSA 10 to a BGS 10? Recall that BGS’ grading system makes room for two different 10s — one Pristine and one Black Label.
For our purposes, we’ll be focused on the BGS 10 Pristine as it sells more frequently than Black Labels.
LeBron James 2003 Topps Chrome RC
Let’s start with the chart you probably are most interested in — how the BGS 10 stacks up value-wise to PSA 10:
There’s little surprising about this chart. Comparing BGS 10 to PSA 10 is not apples to apples; a BGS 10 (Pristine) is a higher grade and comes with tougher standards than PSA 10 (Gem Mint).
As such, we’d expect to see the BGS 10 price point higher than PSA 10. Interestingly, both continue following the same general trend lines, even if the two differ in value. But recall that a PSA 10 ran at about twice the average value of a BGS 9.5. When stacking recent values of PSA 10 against a BGS 10, however, we see a much tighter margin.
What happens when we check out the pop counts between BGS 10 and PSA 10s of this LeBron RC? Let’s see:
| Pop Growth | Jan. 2022 | Feb. 2024 | Growth |
| PSA 10 | 2,158 | 2,282 | 5.75% |
| BGS 10 | 159 | 161 | 1.26% |
| BGS 10 Relative to PSA 10 Pop | 7.37% | 7.06% | – |
Again, as expected, the rate of PSA 10 growth has been much quicker than BGS 10. This is a simple result of BGS 10 having tougher grading standards than a PSA 10. But we’d also expect the increased supply of PSA 10s would deflate the value of those cards relative to BGS 10, right? Guess again:
| Date | BGS 10 AVG | PSA 10 AVG | Price Ratio BGS 10:PSA 10 |
| October 2023 | $7,269 | $5,354 | 1.358 |
| January 2022 | $20,400 | $10,516 | 1.94 |
If these patterns operated as we’d expect, the price ratio between a PSA 10 and BGS 10 would balloon as a result of the gap between PSA and BGS widening (due to the pop-count factors from above).
But not only does the ratio not increase, it decreases. Look at how much more the BGS 10 value has declined vis-a-vis the PSA 10. PSA’s value has been cut roughly in half, while the BGS 10 has lost roughly 65% of its value. What this means is that, despite 14 times as many PSA 10s floating around compared to BGS 10s, the latter is barely clinging to a premium.
Giannis Antetokounmpo 2013 Panini Prizm RC
Let’s take another high-pop count card out for a spin to see how a BGS 10 compares to PSA 10. This one’s another icon: the 2013 Panini Prizm Giannis Antetokounmpo Base Rookie #290.
Generally, the pricing for both PSA 10s and BGS 10s have declined in accordance with the market cooling off from its pandemic highs:
Despite the cooling off, BGS still comes out ahead of PSA as far as this card’s value is concerned. Again, this is expected. But if we dig a little deeper, we see the same concerning signs are present with the Giannis RC as the LeBron RC:
| Pop Growth | Jan. 2022 | Feb. 2024 | Growth |
| PSA 10 | 2,677 | 3,008 | 12.36% |
| BGS 10 | 252 | 255 | 1.19% |
| BGS 10 Relative to PSA 10 Pop | 9.41% | 8.48% | – |
With Giannis’ rise in popularity, it’s no surprise we see PSA’s pop-count far outpace BGS’. And over time, the BGS 10 vs. PSA 10 has been relatively flat ratio-wise over the last two years.
But if adjusting for pop growth, the ratio could be more like ~1.4 — that is, BGS 10 would command 1.4 times the value of PSA 10.
Data summary:
| Date | BGS 10 AVG | PSA 10 AVG | Price Ratio BGS 10:PSA 10 |
| February 2024 | $1,009.00 | $639.02 | 1.579 |
| January 2022 | $2,397.50 | $1,635.33 | 1.466 |
Here’s a somewhat positive sign for BGS—at least as far as the Giannis card is concerned, the price ratio of BGS 10 vs. PSA 10 has increased as each brand’s pop-counts have shifted. But keep in mind they’ve only shifted slightly. With PSA having roughly 12 times the number of Gem Mints to BGS’ Pristine, we might expect the price ratio to be much higher, given traditional norms of supply and demand.
Summary
It’s hard not to feel like this information might spell disaster for BGS. It’s far from unthinkable to imagine a collapse; plenty of industry icons (Nokia, Kodak) have watched their dominance in the market dwindle into nothingness. And let this be a lesson that not all graders are created equally.
There are plenty of reasons for BGS’ decline: poor customer service, lack of perceived value, etc., that we have covered in plenty of detail. Suffice it to say that BGS needs an almost-total revamp of its policies and procedures to reboot its brand, and perhaps its slab values. That means nothing should be off the table (although a botched attempt at revamping its grading system did not inspire confidence).
For the collector looking to grade their cards with a reputable grader, ask yourself what there is to be gained by grading with BGS. The BGS 9.5 consistently garners significantly less value than PSA 10, and even scoring a BGS 10 Pristine grade will barely command a significant premium over PSA 10 anyway. Even so, only time will tell whether that premium will evaporate, too.
What are your thoughts on the BGS 9.5 vs PSA 10 divide? We’d love to hear from you in the comments below!