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Last Updated On: September 30th, 2024
By and large, the most valuable cards on the block tend to be the ones with serial numbers. Why? Because that serial number serves as a clear marker of just how much supply of a given card exists in the market.
But what about non-serial numbered cards? After all, some of the most popular cards to hit the market over the last half-decade have been non-numbered, like Panini’s iconic Silver Prizm. To that end, we have one important tool at our disposal to determine a card’s scarcity: population growth over time.
Consider this post a crash course into population growth: what it is, how to calculate it, and the extent to which pop growth should figure into your decision to purchase a card. Ultimately, we’ll suggest two techniques to evaluate a card’s population growth.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
What is Population Growth?
Population refers to the number of cards that have received a grade. Population growth is a metric that measures how a card’s population has changed over time. Typically this figure goes in one direction: up.
How Does Pop Growth Affect Card Values?
The reason we care about population growth stems from traditional rules about supply and demand. For the uninitiated, as supply increases, prices tend to to fall (and vice-versa). This tracks with what we know about sports cards generally; numbered cards are prized over non-numbered ones because we have a guarantee of a card’s production, and potential supply.
This puts us in a pickle when it comes to non-numbered cards. After all, the total number of cards printed is unknown and protected by the brands. In the cases of a non-numbered card, population growth serves as a key indicator of its scarcity and, by extension, its value.
As one might surmise, a lower population count (or pop count) generally means a card will hold more value.
That’s not an end-all, be-all rule, however. Population growth doesn’t capture demand. For instance, a card might carry a low pop count, but rise suddenly and sharply. This doesn’t mean the card itself is in demand, but rather collectors are speculating that the card will be in demand and worth more graded than ungraded.
The only problem: such high population growth tends to tank a card’s value. It’s a double-edged sword: the hobby clearly recognizes that cards must be graded in order to secure the most value possible. Yet such staggering population growth risks devaluing the card itself.
The most frequent recent example of this effect playing out is with Panini basketball cards. Typically, collectors will hunt for the most-hyped players in a given draft and quickly send them in for grading.
Case in point: some 330,000 Victor Wembanyama cards have been graded in the last year, when the French phenom entered the NBA. Many other stars – Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Zion Williamson – saw their cards go through a similar process. As printing methods improve and collectors wise up to which cards will likely hold value, the number of Gem Mint cards also tends to increase, cutting into the prized scarcity that keeps values high.
The top-end, uber-collectible cards are likely able to withstand at least some of this incredible population growth. But for the lesser-loved cards, like some of the more vomitous Panini parallels, population growth like this will inevitably place a ceiling on values. Consider this: those 330,000+ Wembanyama cards aren’t all the cards out there, only the ones that have received a grade. The fact that over a quarter of a million Wembanyama cards have been printed at all might suggest we’re on the verge of a second Junk Wax Era.
Let’s see how a card’s high pop growth can hurt its overall value using Ja Morant’s 2019 Silver Prizm PSA 10.
The card’s population growth is over 60% over the last three-and-a-half years. What’s more, this rate has been steady, meaning there’s no reason to think it won’t continue climbing moving forward. If we examine the card’s sales history, we see it trending in exactly the opposite direction: down.
That’s not to say the entire sales price decline is due to population growth. Morant has endured plenty of off-court drama throughout his young career, which is also likely hurting his card prices. But there’s no doubt that the lack of scarcity is hampering his sales prices. In the case of the Morant card, collectors should proceed with caution, given such population growth.
2 Techniques to Verify Pop Growth
There are two ways that we recommend to check pop growth: Card Ladder and Gem Rate. Keep in mind that these, and most other sources, only track grades given by the four most prominent graders: PSA, BGS, SGC, and CGC. Ergo, one won’t find graders like TAG or Edge in the bunch.
Additionally, collectors can consult individual grading companies to track pop growth. But this isn’t a complete picture; PSA will offer a card’s PSA pop count, but not BGS or SGC. Additionally, these companies rarely provide population growth figures, further limiting their effectiveness.
Card Ladder
Long-time readers shouldn’t be surprised to see Card Ladder on this list; after all, we rely on them for most of our number crunching, and for good reason. It’s quick and easy to check pop growth for any card in the site’s database.
Let’s examine the process of checking a card’s population growth using Card Ladder with one of my favorite cards: the 2007 Topps Kevin Durant #2 Orange variation.
To begin with, let’s set the grade at a PSA 10. Card Ladder will provide pop counts for each grade, but only population growth charts for one individual grade at a time.
Once we’ve set our grade, we want to navigate over to the “Pop” number on the card’s dashboard. Click the open book icon.
From there, we’ll be confronted with the card’s “Population Report” page. At the top, we’ll see a card’s total population (across all graders), the total number of gems (across all graders) and a card’s gem rate (across all graders). If we scroll down, we’ll see these figures broken up across available graders, along with approximate card values for each grade.
Finally, all the way down at the bottom, we’ll find a card’s Population Growth chart for the card (and specific grade) we selected. In the case of this Kevin Durant card, we can see that it’s had a 21% increase in population over the last three-and-a-half years (six Gem Mint cards were added in that time, so we divide that by the original 28 to arrive at 21.4% growth). Typically, this sort of population growth might be concerning; however, since the baseline figures are so low, such an increase isn’t likely to hurt the card’s value. Also, when it comes to Durant at least, we already view his cards as undervalued and at a great entry point for collectors.
Gem Rate
In addition to Card Ladder, Gem Rate is another excellent resource for collectors. Not only does Gem Rate provide population growth data for individual cards, but collectors can utilize the site to search for individual players, as well.
Let’s run the same simulation using the same Orange Durant card as above. First, locate the “Player Data” tab across the top banner of Gem Rate. Then, search for a given player, in this case, Kevin Durant.
From there, Gem Rate provides the total number of cards graded, the number of Gem Mints, and the overall gem rate for a given player. To get more specific, consult the table of individual cards. Since we want the Orange variation, we’ll select that option. To pull up a chart of the card’s population growth, click the forecast arrow in the “Trend” column.
And presto! We have our population growth chart. Notice the dark green line at the very bottom depicts 34 PSA 10 Gem Mint grades, which represents a 1.5% gem rate against 2,213 cards graded.
Gem Rate is also extremely useful to identify underrated cards based on population growth. Consider the 1995 Fleer Michael Jordan Total-D insert we covered in a recent discussion on undervalued Jordan cards. Here’s the chart:
Just like the Durant above, see how the line for gem rate is inverted to that of population growth? That’s exactly what we’d want to see when hunting for underrated cards. What this chart is telling collectors is that, yes, this card is still seeing population growth, but, crucially, the gem rate is shrinking. In other words, Fleer Total-D inserts that have received a Gem Mint grade remain rare, even in the face of population growth.
Conclusion
The next time you consider a major card purchase, be sure to check out a card’s population growth before submitting a bid. This is especially important if your intent is to flip a card; the last thing you want is to pay a premium for a low-pop card only to see it explode before you resell.
In the case of older cards, it’s fair to assume the grading burst is well behind us and not likely to change in any significant way in the future. For newer (especially basketball) cards, one cannot assume that this is the case.
Time will tell whether we’re entering a renewed Junk Wax Era. What we can say for sure is that tracking population growth is an excellent way to make sure you’re purchasing cards that will withstand excessive print runs and inevitable market saturation.