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Last Updated On: March 7th, 2025
Looking back at the top of the 2021 NBA draft reminds us how quickly fortunes can change in professional basketball. Four of the first six picks belonged to teams well over .500 today, including the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder, who lead their respective conferences with 50+ wins.
Yet, other teams still languish in the basketball cellar. The Raptors and Pelicans, for instance, will almost surely dip back into the top five of the 2025 NBA draft.
This post will highlight which players have developed the best (and worst) for their respective teams. Additionally, it will offer some future projections and opportunities to invest in a given player’s basketball cards. As we head for the NBA playoffs, we’re finally seeing some of those 2021 NBA draft prospects contributing in real ways on contending teams, making this a timely rewind.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
About the 2021 Class
Recall the world in July 2021. One year earlier, the COVID-19 pandemic had ravaged the world, and by summer 2021, it was beginning to reopen to a sense of normalcy.
Sports were very much a part of this equation. The 2020 draft, for instance, was entirely remote. Just a few months prior, college players saw their seasons come to a premature end. Teams were forced to do their homework virtually, with players as polarizing as Georgia’s Anthony Edwards and Memphis’ Jonathan Wiseman dominating draft boards.
The 2021 draft saw the process get back on track. As most drafts do, the 2021 edition coalesced around three top-end talents: point guard Cade Cunningham, two-guard Jalen Green, and stretch big Evan Mobley.
Cunningham, for his part, was a former No. 1 high school player who drew comparisons to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The bouncy, athletic Green, meanwhile, left scouts drooling over his athleticism but was dinged for his unrefined technical abilities. And Mobley’s name was whispered in the same breath as Tim Duncan.
Beyond the top three, a bevy of talents filled out the rest of the lottery. That included Jalen Suggs, fresh off leading Gonzaga to a near NCAA championship; Davion Mitchell, who led the Baylor Bears to a championship victory over Suggs’ Bulldogs; and a handful of international talents (Turkey’s Alperen Sengun, Germany/Michigan’s Franz Wagner, and Australia’s Josh Giddey).
Four years on, many of these players have rewarded their respective franchises’ faith in them with stats, wins, and bright futures. However, others face a murkier future.
Additionally, four years is a large enough sample size for us to dig into a draft rewind. While no player enters the league fully formed, the four-year mark offers a large enough sample size to sift the studs from the duds.
And that’s precisely what we’re going to do below.
Breaking Down the Draft
Much like our annual preseason buyer’s guides, we’ve broken down the 2021 rewind into different tiers based on how players have developed over time. Doing so helps us get an idea of where a player exists now and how far they’ve come. Further, it offers easy-to-understand categories for would-be investors who may not follow the league closely.
Championship Engines
Owning a top pick in a draft is double-edged. On one hand, there’s the buzz and excitement of landing a franchise-changing talent. On the other there is extraordinary pressure to nail the pick.
Fortunately, the team at the top, the Detroit Pistons, appears to have done just that by taking Cade Cunningham.
Cade Cunningham (No.1 Pick)
Cade Cunningham is a perfect example of why it may take a player several seasons to cement their status in the league. Before the 2024-25 season, there were serious questions surrounding Cunningham’s ability to elevate a team from rebuilder to contender. The advanced stats hated him, and he teetered on the verge of being yet another Detroit Pistons draft night miss.
But few players have blossomed this season like Cunningham. He’s simultaneously shooting and distributing the ball better than ever. The Pistons find themselves in sixth place in the East and within striking distance of fourth.
Armed with veteran scorers and a competent coach, Cunningham is on track to earning his first All-NBA honor this offseason.
High-End All-Stars
Consider this category a half-step down from the one above: Cunningham is in a category of his own, one reserved for the best or second-best player that can provide on a championship-caliber team. These players, by contrast, are integral to their teams but nonetheless are just outside the rarified air of above.
Evan Mobley (No. 3 Pick)
Mobley’s career arc is strikingly similar to that of Cunningham, albeit with a different set of skills. He showcased a tantalizing future as a defender but was an absolute zero on offense.
2024-25 has been something of a revival for Mobley. He made his first All-Star team and is lethal enough as a shooter to demand attention from opposing defenses. He also anchors the number one team in the Eastern Conference and is capable of guarding any position on the floor.
Alperen Sengun (No. 16 Pick)
Like Mobley, Turkish big man Alperen Sengun earned his first All-Star nod this season with the Houston Rockets. He’s a stretch five with excellent footwork, eyesight, and toughness.
His scoring is down a hair this season but, crucially, he’s up to double-digits in rebounds and nearly five (!) assists per contest. He’s a unicorn; case in point: the only players to average 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.5 assists this season are Sengun, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Domantas Sabonis.
Not bad company, indeed.
Perhaps more importantly, he’s helped revitalize a Rockets team that, just a few seasons ago, was wandering the desert. Now, alongside Amen Thompson and a slew of other youngsters, Sengun and the Rockets are ascendant.
What Exactly Are You?
The following category exists for players who have demonstrated thrilling upside but have come up short of consistent excellence.
Scottie Barnes (No. 4 Pick)
Let’s start with the player who earned Rookie of the Year honors from the 2021 class, Scottie Barnes. The Florida State product is, on his best days, a Swiss Army Knife of a player big enough to guard most positions on the court but crafty enough to serve as a team’s lead ball handler.
Unfortunately, those “best days” have been few and far between since his rookie season. In his rookie season, he took the league by storm by averaging 15.3 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per night. Three years later, his scoring has increased to 19.8 points per night, but his rebounding is stagnant.
His numbers aren’t bad by any stretch. But a rookie is generally expected to improve facets of their game as they get older. It’s not clear whether Barnes’ rookie season was the opening salvo in a legendary career or the ceiling of a solid one.
Jalen Green (No. 3 Pick)
Ahead of the draft, G-League prospect Jalen Green earned high-end comparisons to Clyde Drexler (“It’s going to take a lot of growth, but Green’s upside is that of an All-NBA scoring guard and eventual Hall of Famer”) by CBS’ Colin Ward-Henninger.
Unfortunately, he’s been closer to Ward-Henniger’s low-end comparison, Jordan Clarkson (“Green will be a super-athletic bucket-getter who turns into a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate…”). He’s a microwave scorer but his vision has yet to materialize in a meaningful way.
What’s more concerning is that many on the Rockets, including Sengun, Thompson, Tari Eason, and others, have shown considerable growth under head coach Ime Udoka. Green’s relative stagnation does not bode well for his long-term future in Space City.
Franz Wagner (No. 8 Pick)
You may recall that in our 2023-24 NBA Buyer’s Guide, we were especially bullish on second-year player Franz Wagner of the Orlando Magic. The wing had an exceptional rookie season and looked to be a future stud at one of the most important positions in the league.
Unfortunately, he’s been unable to match his strong start. Of particular concern is his shooting from deep. After connecting on around 36% of threes over his first two seasons, his rate has slumped to 29% over the last two seasons.
He’s also struggled with injury problems of late, missing two months of the 2024-25 season with a torn oblique. While the Magic’s future is still bright, it will largely be dictated by how Wagner and teammate Paolo Banchero get along in Orlando.
Did Not See This Coming
Every player we’ve discussed so far was taken in the lottery. But as history tells us, there are diamonds to be found outside the top 14.
Austin Reaves (Undrafted)
Being taken outside the lottery typically puts a chip on a player’s shoulder. In some cases, a player might remember everyone taken before them.
That list includes every player taken in the 2021 draft for Austin Reaves. Reaves, who split his five-year college career between Wichita State and Oklahoma, went undrafted in 2021. But the Lakers took a flier on him in the preseason, and he’s yet to look back.
He not only starts for the Lakers. He thrives. There’s a credible argument to be made that, aside from Luka Doncic and LeBron James, Reaves is the third-most important player in yellow and purple. It was considered heinous that the Lakers didn’t have to ship Reaves to the Mavericks to retain Doncic.
Even more impressive: he’s quietly been one of LeBron James’ longest-tenured professional teammates in Los Angeles. He’s weathered a storm that few others, Anthony Davis included, have not.
Finding Value in the 2021 NBA Draft’s Rookie Cards
With talent galore, there’s plenty to appreciate in the 2021 NBA draft class. Find your favorites – Evan Mobley is a personal one – and monitor the prices closely.
Also, keep in mind some of the lessons we’ve been sharing over the years. For starters, consider any x-factors that might boost a given player’s ceiling. Take Austin Reaves. He plays in the hottest sports market in the United States, if not the globe. He also owns the quintessential underdog come-from-behind story. Both of these aren’t as quantifiable as championship rings, but nonetheless impact his cards’ values.
Pop growth is also worth considering. High pop counts mean more supply and, thus, less scarcity. Cade Cunningham is a classic example. As with any #1 pick, Cunningham would have drawn significant interest in 2021, especially amidst the pandemic-era surge in card values.
A more complex case study in pop counts is Scottie Barnes. Like Cunningham, Barnes was selected early in the 2021 draft and won Rookie of the Year. Interest in Barnes rocketed by the season’s end, leading to a surge in population for his rookie cards.
But a few years later, there might be a case to buy Barnes stock. As noted above, he’s yet to develop into the perennial All-Star most thought he would after his first year. That said, his team is headed for a likely top-five pick in a stacked 2025 draft. If Barnes could find a competent running mate (akin to Cade Cunningham finding capable teammates this season), he could find himself back on track.
For comparison, Cunningham’s Silver Prizm in PSA 10 goes for over $600, while Barnes sells just shy of $150; a 4 to 1 ratio!
Finally, remember that only one team can win the championship in a given season. The favorites – Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder – don’t even have players on this list. (2021 was a rare draft miss for the Thunder, which took Josh Giddey and traded the pick that would turn into Sengun.)
For players like Evan Mobley and Cade Cunningham, this season will likely end in defeat. Based on their regular-season performances, their stocks might be at all-time highs right now. Come summer, however, the hype will likely have died down, making them better buys as we head into next year.
2021 NBA Draft Stars on eBay
Pro Tip: set Max Price to a range within your desired budget. Keep in mind the default sort order will display cards with the most bids first, and can be changed to sort by price, or by cards ending soonest on eBay.
Summary
Four years on, it’s fair to say the NBA is in a strong position talentwise thanks to its contributions from the 2021 draft. Players like Mobley and Cunningham are putting flyover teams like the Cavaliers and Pistons back on the map.
For the less-than-elite players on this list, there is still time for their games to round out. Scottie Barnes has been virtually alone with the Raptors while Franz Wagner’s injuries are costing him precious on-court time.
Additionally, we’re only scratching the surface of the 2021 NBA draft here in this post. There are several other names – Jonathan Kuminga (Golden State), Jalen Johnson (Atlanta), Trey Murphy (New Orleans) – worth exploring closely.
If you do, remember those principles discussed above. Monitor a player’s pop growth to detect trends in the hobby. Consider how a player’s team is likely to perform in the playoffs. And keep an eye out for x-factors that will cause a player’s values to jump.
These principles apply to women’s basketball, as well. As we head into March Madness, both the men and women’s games will showcase strong talent. Perhaps the next generation will rise before our very eyes in just a few short weeks.